A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
